de0u In theory the secure element (which is hardware) might have failed. This is genuinely quite unlikely, but in theory it can happen, just as any piece of hardware can fail.
If it's hardware failure and I bought a new phone, is it possible to somehow clone the image of the locked phone (in its encrypted state) onto the new one and try to unlock using the PIN? It's too hard to believe that I am forgetting the same PIN I've been entering for over a year. I wish grapheneos didn't have such a crazy upper limit on its attempt timer.