@MetropleX @bereft_penguin Thanks again to both of you for the suggestions - I've been playing around with logcat and it seems like it would be plenty verbose to solve the issue -- if I had all the other requisite knowledge! And to the point about the Casio, I wish I'd chosen a slightly less-smart watch like a Pebble but - bygones!
I'm performing a complete reset on the phone and I'll try to get the Wear working before I do anything else -- if that fails I'll probably have to shelve GrapheneOS until I have more time. I understand that whatever's gone wrong is far more likely to be a case of Google not following the rules than any bug in Graphene, but I doubt I'll get to the bottom of it.
For the record, here's the part of the log that seems interesting that's happening right when the process gives up -- but there are a few interesting errors and stack traces further up the log that may also prove to be relevant. I'll take your advice about sending it to a dev or as a real bug report as soon as I've got some confidence I've tried everything I can and isolated the problem. (I'm skeptical that the solution would be as simple as changing enableConnection() to enableDeviceConnection() in the source code.)
06-12 15:08:58.032 28819 28819 I CreateBtBondAction: ACTION_DISCOVERY_FINISHED received, proceeding to create bond.
06-12 15:08:58.076 28819 28819 I CreateBtBondAction: CreateBondActionReceiver received state: 11, previous state: 10
06-12 15:09:21.114 28819 28819 I PairingController: pairing in progress
06-12 15:09:21.696 28819 28819 I CreateBtBondAction: CreateBondActionReceiver received state: 12, previous state: 11
06-12 15:09:21.697 28819 28936 I CwSetup.CreateConfig: creating ConnectionConfiguration for: [CENSORED]
06-12 15:09:21.698 28819 28819 I PairingController: device bonded
06-12 15:09:21.727 28819 28936 I CwSetup.CreateConfig: trying to find connected ConnectionConfiguration
06-12 15:10:06.773 28819 28936 I CwSetup.CreateConfig: re-enabling connection
06-12 15:10:06.774 17668 17697 E WearableService: enableConnection is no longer supported. Use enableDeviceConnection instead.
06-12 15:10:06.775 28819 28936 E CwSetup.CreateConfig: Unable to enable connection.
06-12 15:10:06.776 28819 28936 I CwSetup.CreateConfig: finished creating ConnectionConfiguration: CreateConfigTask.Result{ isSuccess=false, mConfig=null }
06-12 15:10:06.776 28819 28936 E CwSetup.SetupJob: Failed to create ConnectionConfiguration
06-12 15:10:06.791 28819 28819 E PairingController: pairing failed
06-12 15:10:06.794 28819 28936 I BluetoothDevice: cancelBondProcess() for device [CENSORED] called by pid: 28819 tid: 28936