Basically the answer seems to be that they wouldn't be able to install the malicious firmware they created. And all GOS users are getting the same firmware updates, so an individual couldn't be targeted that way.
I also asked on the #General Matrix channel. Some answers for reference:
"GrapheneOS Bridge, [Oct 11, 2025 at 7:43:06 AM]:
<pxlkng:discord> Firmware updates are exclusively shipped through GrapheneOS and cannot be done out-of-band of GrapheneOS releases.
<pxlkng:discord> The firmware can be, and afaik has been, audited."
"<pxlkng:discord> The way GrapheneOS updates work makes this impossible.
<hybridstaticanimate:discord> GOS rips firmware from stock, so they would need to compromise stock too, most likely.
<hybridstaticanimate:discord> And then GOS needs to ship it, which cannot viably be targeted to one person.
<hybridstaticanimate:discord> And then that update needs to be accepted. Which requires getting to the homescreen first."